In GENERAL, our spirits our high here in NH-01.  And this weekend the presence of General Wesley Clark, on the campaign trail for Carol Shea-Porter, is lifting them even higher.

Wesley Clark and our candidate will be making several appearances together across the district on Friday (10/20) and Saturday (10/21) focusing their talks on national security at home and abroad and on veterans issues.

Clark endorsed Carol earlier this month and his endorsement appears after the jump.

I know you don't believe us, but we are going to do this.  Help us out.  Jolt the network. Give us words of encouragement.  Contribute to the cause.

Go Carol!   Go blue!   Huzzah!  (Cross-posted on dKos)

The weather outside is cooling but the political tempterature in NH-01 is rising in anticipation of November 7.

NH Outlook, the NH Public TV news magazine, broadcast an interview with both democratic contender Carol Shea-Porter, and her opponent Jeb Bradley, the republican incumbent.

Check it out.  Carol is up first and she does a remarkable job with her intelligence, perspicacity and tenacity in full display.  When Jeb is up, he spends more than half the time fending off questions on Iraq, WMD, republican party lapses in ethics, and so on and so on and so on.  If you are in  NH-01 or have friends and family who are, please encourage them to watch.  Here's the streaming video of the interviews.  See content breakdown after the break.

Here in NH-01, one of the major papers is Foster's Daily Democrat, covering the southeast corner of the state.  Foster's Daily Democrat.  Well, I'll grant that it's a daily.   Doesn't seem very democratic, little d or BIG D.  It surely isn't doing much fostering, at least not of democracy.  

The day after Carol Shea-Porter upended the democratic primary on September 12, beating the DCCC candidate, she issued a challenge to the two-term republican incumbent Jeb Bradley to debate the issues.  There was a deafening silence... from the Bradley campaign and from Foster's Daily Democrat.  

Letters kept appearing in Foster's...

Another great fall day in NH-01.   The skies are blue, the air is crisp.  Here's an update from the Carol Shea-Porter campaign, responding to issues of visibility.

News of our death has been greatly exaggerated.

A few pundits have claimed that the lights have gone out in Camp Carol, but in fact things are really starting to get into high gear.

Our member list is growing dramatically.  We have had highly successful town hall meetings in Bedford, Wolfeboro and North Conway. The volunteer network is organized and ready to move into action. Contributions are up. We are producing ads. Nobody is sleeping but it doesn't really matter.

Remember, NH is filled with persnickety folks.  We like our politics up close and personal.   And that's where most of the work is going-on.  Is it enough?  Stay tuned for November 7th.

In the meantime, jolt the network.  Give us words of encouragement.  Contribute to the cause.

Go Carol!   Go blue!   Huzzah!

(Cross-posted on dKos)

Just spotted the abstract to this analysis which combines the generic vote with a metric to determine a candidate's "quality."   The model shows the dems regaining the House (gain of 22 seats) but not the Senate (gain of 2.2 seats).  Looking at elections back to 1946, the model does a statistically better job predicting House elections (87%)  than Senate elections (65%).  

Here's the entire article, by Alan Abramowitz, Emory University.  Below is the abstact:

This article describes a model for forecasting the outcomes of congressional elections based on national political conditions and candidate behavior. Pre-election Gallup Poll data on the generic vote and presidential approval are used to measure national political conditions and data on open seats and challenger quality are used to measure the behavior of congressional candidates. The model is tested with data on U.S. House elections between 1946 and 2004. A simpler model based only on national political conditions is tested with data on U.S. Senate elections from the same period. The results indicate that Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in November. Democratic gains are also likely in the Senate but it will be difficult for Democrats to pick up the six seats that they need to take control of the upper chamber because only 15 of the 33 seats up for election in 2006 are currently held by Republicans.

It's a crisp, cool Fall morning, here in NH-01.  The maples are glowing in red and orange, the birches in yellow, I can hear leaves crackling underfoot and...

...the furnace just turned on.  

I am grateful for the warmth it provides but it does set me to wondering:  who else is benefiting from the oil that I am burning?  Well our local fuel oil dealer, but I don't begrudge them their hard-earned profits - I'm the offspring of a Manchester, NH fuel oil dealer and I remember how hard my Dad worked under the most inclement of conditions to keep others warm.

Who else benefits?